entertain ideas of great communion

I am Erin. I like politics and music and history and baking and sport and the internet. I also like to read, often about politics and music and history and baking and sport and the internet. My longform blog is here. I tweet here.
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There have been only 16 presidential elections since World War II. That simply isn’t a lot of data, and overly specific conclusions from them, like “no recent president has been re-elected with an unemployment rate over 8.0 percent” or “no recent incumbent has lost when he did not face a primary challenge,” are often not very meaningful in practice and will generally not carry much predictive weight.

Nate Silver’s insights are pure gold

(via wonklife)

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    Nate Silver’s insights are pure gold
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